Waitt Institute

The Waitt Institute implements innovative technologies in the field through collaborations with world-renowned scientific institutions, synthesizing global expertise and accelerating groundbreaking research. More »

Probability Scenarios

Re-navigation experts weigh on the best uses of the search time remaining…

TUESDAY, 04.28.09

0630: From Chris Nutter To Andy Sherrell
Michael DiBello (Dibs) and I conferred this morning. I’m home all day. Dibs is flying all day, but back here early evening. Great graphic — thanks much. Really helped to visualize options.

Our thinking is to complete all of the C blocks. But we have a question, and wanted to offer up a thought on a slight modification with the remaining time left. We’re concerned with the area north of the 21A and 21B boxes, for what would amount to about box numbers 22-23, adjacent to 1E and 2E. Wondering what’s the chance to look in this area, assuming it’s a non-searched area?

Dibs and I feel that we’d sacrifice some southern C boxes, 15C through 20C on your most recent graphic, to go look in this northern area above A, B, and C blocks, perhaps eight to 12 nautical miles or as you have room and time for, with other considerations.

Loss Analysts in Electra

CATALYST 2 Flight Reconstruction Team Lead Christopher Nutter (shown here in the cockpit of a vintage Lockheed Electra) and Research Assistant Michael DiBello are not at sea, but are here in spirit AND via e-mail!

0739: Andy Sherrell To Chris Nutter
Wanted to give you an update. We just finished E/F column and are now working on the C column from the north down to the south end. We plan on doing the entire column, unless you have any changes you would like to see implemented. First mission back on board tomorrow! Talk to you soon.

0830: Chris Nutter To Andy Sherrell
Thanks much. Dibs and I discussed this today, and we had a few questions:
• Do you have any search time left after the C block?
• Any plans to come in and return sometime later?
• Any plans to look anywhere in the D block column?
• How hard is it to add some D blocks adjacent to the C block column as you work your way south?

As we clear B and A blocks, and E and F, we’re thinking more about the D blocks.

Two scenarios:
1. Amelia Earhart arrived at Path C End of Navigation (EON), maneuvered to the 1928 GMT position in the C blocks, and “circled” there until about 2013 GMT when she commenced and reported flying the Line of Position (LOP).
2. Amelia Earhart arrived at Path C EON, stayed there from 1912 GMT to 1928 GMT, circled there until 2013 GMT, and commenced and reported flying the LOP.

Scenario (1) puts the plane in the C blocks up to about 2100 GMT.
Scenario (2) puts the plane in the D blocks up to about 2100 GMT.

If time is limited, we thought about including some D blocks adjacent to C blocks. We’re evaluating the merits of D blocks versus the east side.

P8_Area1_MAP-2A.jpg

The original search grid as determined by expert investigators and sonar analysts, all working hand-in-hand with President Ted Waitt.

0930: Andy Sherrell To Chris Nutter
Figure if we have enough time to do C blocks 1-20 and we do 1.5 blocks a day, that’s not much time left for any additional blocks and assumes no problems along the way. I would assume this is it: no more search time left, no return trips for more boxes, currently no plans to look into D column, and no time left after we complete the C column.

But we can look into D column if we widen C column and shorten it along the LOP direction. It is easier for the AUVs and a little more efficient in the long run.

Here is the situation: we are in 1C and 2C, will be in 3C and 4C within 12 hours and will need to set up for 5C and 6C in 16 hours. If we want to look farther west in the area around EON C, it is no problem, but we need to implement it very quickly, like today or tomorrow at the latest, depending on where you want to move westerly along that LOP… and how many of the C boxes you want to cut out.

I attached a chart for your review, notice the C column numbers changed order. Maybe we should talk on the phone. Are you available? Call me when you look at this and we can chat. Will it matter anyway once we find it in 1C?!

Cat2-Leg2-mod5_small.jpg

The final iteration of the search grid.

1319: Chris Nutter To Andy Sherrell
Roger that. Best to continue with C blocks as planned. If you had any extra time, the D boxes of interest would be the ones adjacent to C5, C7, C9, C11, C13 and C15. I would prioritize completing all of C, and only do these D boxes if there’s extra time.

Thanks for graphic — good reference. Sea floor along C blocks looks pretty conducive to searching. Is that correct?

1130: From Andy Sherrell To Chris Nutter
I attached an updated chart. Added a “D” column so we could discuss it a little easier.

Figure that we have ~18 boxes we can finish as of today. Operationally, we prefer to do boxes such as 1D/5C as a pair (maximum efficiency for the AUVs). If you want to cover some of the D boxes versus the southern C boxes, I would say now is the time. We could do something around 2D/6C through 9D/13C, and probably finish all of those boxes (or 1D/5C through 8D/12C).

I guess the decision is what do you like better for the probability scenario — some of D around the EON point or all of C? All of the seafloor looks good for sidescan sonar, so no influence from that on the decision.

Let me know if that sways you either way. We can alter our current plan with no impact if we make a decision within the next ~12 hours.