MONDAY, 04.06.09

1738: T-Minus 12 Hours & Counting
We’re back in the Northern Hemisphere, and boy does it feel good. Just like coming home. The Equator looks just like a blue line drawn in the ocean (which is, unfortunately, the exact same color). I would say that crew morale is peaking, teams are ready, gear is shined up and we’re raring to go. We are set to go past Howland Island right around sunset tonight, and should be ready to deploy our first Deep Ocean Transponder (DOT) soon thereafter. Time to get frosty again.

The analysts and I are working with Ted Waitt and Chris Nutter to finalize the boxes. We’re doing some trimming here, and some cutting there, and looking to see if and where we want to add. It’s heady stuff for an old flatlander like me. I’m sure everyone else on board feels the same way: we’re privileged to be a part of this.

Here’s an interesting side note: a few of the boys on board got to check something off of their bucket lists, most especially Captain George, who had been bragging he hoped some day he’d have the opportunity to ride out a typhoon. We found out sometime in the last 24 hours that the storm we rode out of when we were left Samoa was indeed designated Typhoon Lin. I’m further informed top winds noted on the bridge were 52 knots (that’s 60 miles per hour for you fellow flatlanders). Seas did not really build that high (maybe 20 feet and that’s probably pushing it), but it was no fun and that’s a fact. I’m sure the story is getting worse (bigger and better) by the minute for those of us inclined to tell fish tales. Before you know it, it’ll be 90 mile-per-hour winds and 40-foot seas.

So here we are, here we are and here we are! Freshly across the Equator and scant hours away from kicking off Leg 2 of the world’s largest and most difficult underwater search, ready to go into the record books and to FIND THE LADY IN THE PLANE!!!

1744: From Andy Sherrell To Ted Waitt, Leg 1 Coverage Analysis
Ted, Here are the coverage numbers you asked me for previously. Sorry for the delayed response, but we wanted to give you as accurate information as possible. In order for us to do that, we needed to get the overall mosaic of the sidescan data to a point where we could measure areas more accurately, and unfortunately, it was not a quick project.

We broke this into four categories as a percentage of completed survey to date (927sqnm):

- Holidays in coverage: 4.5sqnm = 0.5%
- Acoustic shadow zones: 10sqnm = 1.1%
- Geologic clutter/masking areas: 62sqnm = 6.7%
- General non-benign bottom: 80sqnm = 8.6%

Holidays and acoustic shadows zones are 100% non-detectable areas — geologic clutter/masking areas are places like the rock fields that you saw when reviewing the sonar data out here with me. As we discussed then, within these areas it becomes more difficult to detect the plane. If I had to give it a percentage, I would say we still have a 70% chance of detecting it in those areas. Non-benign bottom areas are in general any other area that is not flat and/or has an inconsistent bottom type. The detection probability I would give this area is 90%.

Bottom line: for over 91% of the area we searched, we can say with at least 90% confidence the plane is not there. Given these numbers and the amount of area we have covered with a high confidence of detection, and taking into account the size of the area we want to cover, I feel we are using the correct range scales and line spacing. They give us the balance between coverage and detectability for this search and the bottom terrain we are working in.

We are awaiting Chris Nutter’s recommendations; he has said he would like to finish the A and B columns as you have also said, and is working on the rest of the plan. I will send it as soon as I hear from him.

Let me know if any of this needs clarification or you would like to see something different. Thanks.

2008: To Ted Waitt, Working On The Box
Ted, Okay, we’ve been on the phone with Nutter and are getting down to it. We are for sure going to scrub boxes 22b/a and 23b/a. I’m leaning toward keeping 21a/b, and 19 and 20a, in the interest of making sure that we get the area along Nutter’s flight paths covered. Although we could probably still shave off 21a/b as we discussed today, I am hesitant to make that call. I know we discussed it earlier today but I’m second-guessing myself now. The benefits and justifications for keeping them should be apparent when looking at the map.

We’ll probably shave the top off 21 and 22c. We will need to look at what’s left of c and prioritize that, whether or not we feel strongly about 1-10c or 10-20c, or both. Nutter is also thinking on this some more. We’re thinking about doing all of E from 2e to a partial of 11e and need to discuss F.

Right now that is the big question: does F have value? If we are going to do F, then the thing to do now would be to continue to work up A and B. Then we do E and F in the same manner as A and B - 2e and f up to 10 or 11 e and F. If we are going to skip F, then the time to do E is now as we work up B. Then we do the rest of A when we start up on C. Nutter is not hot on F, as it is off his flight path. How do you feel about it?

The totality shown on the map right now is 50 boxes. It’ll come down to 40 if we prioritize by half row C, or skip F. What do you think? We need some input from you to make the call on where to start out setting DOTs: A/B or B/E

2212: To Ted Waitt, Andy Sherrell, Dom Rissolo & Chris Nutter, Re: Making The Call
For now, we are going to proceed with A/B boxes with DOTs at bottom intersections of A/B boxes 16, 17, 18, 19, which will allow us to finish up 16 and do boxes 17 and 18 as well. That gives us a few days to plot the next move.

That’s my call, absent other direction in the next hour or so. We’re getting close and I want my guys working as soon as we’re on it.